Monte Carlo Simulation
10,000 health expenditure scenarios using MEPS distributions calibrated to your age and conditions.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Rather than a single point estimate, Pelandri runs 10,000 simulated health expenditure scenarios for each plan using Latin Hypercube Sampling. Each scenario draws from MEPS-calibrated log-normal distributions adjusted by your age group and health conditions.
The simulation produces a complete cost distribution, giving you:
- Expected (mean) cost -- the average across all scenarios
- Median cost -- the 50th percentile, less sensitive to outliers
- 95th percentile cost -- your worst-case planning number
- Full histogram -- see the entire distribution of possible costs
This lets you choose between plans based on your risk tolerance: a conservative user might optimize for worst-case cost, while an aggressive optimizer focuses on expected cost.